Today's Water Cooler 2026-05-06

Birdsong of the Day

Dawn song of a White-throated Sparrow:

In Case You Might Miss…

(1) Donald Knuth on AI.

(2) Hanta virus.

(3) Mamdani v. billionaires.

Politics

Democrats en Déshabillé

“GOP spots an opening with Black voters” [Axios]. “The share of Black adults identifying as or leaning Democratic fell from 77% in 2020 to 66% in 2023 — roughly an 11-point drop. The change seems to be similar to that with white voters: a split among educated middle-class and working-class Black voters.” And: “A generational and structural shift is decoupling Black identity from Democratic Party loyalty, transforming a once-reliable voting bloc into a cohort of “political free agents” that the GOP is uniquely positioned to exploit.” • Good. That “once-reliable voting bloc” — rather, the hegemons who delivered it — gave us Obama, Biden, Harris — and therefore, arguably, Trump. That’s not a good record. I don’t think that those hegemons were the drivers of Democrat decay, but they certainly did little to prevent it.

Protest

“Emotional responses to state repression predict collective climate action intentions” [Nature]. “Survey data from Extinction Rebellion UK mailing list subscribers (n = 1,375) showed that experienced repression positively predicted non-normative action intentions and showed a positive indirect predictive effect on non-normative action via reduced fear. Although anticipated repression was not directly associated with either action type, it had positive indirect predictive effects on both action types via anger/outrage and on non-normative action via contempt. Conversely, it also had a negative indirect predictive effect on non-normative action through heightened fear. These findings predominantly reflect a galvanizing effect of repression on disruptive collective climate action among committed activists.”

Realignment and Legitimacy

“”It’s kind of like magic”: Why pollsters are replacing people with bots” [The New Statesman]. “AI is already in every part of the public opinion research process, whether it’s being used to gather the data or analyse it. Survey respondents, too, are using LLMs to speed up their answers. But perhaps the most controversial of AI techniques employed in modern polling is the use of synthetic respondents, also known as silicon sampling.” • Seems a bit circular.

Geopolitics

“The three armies fighting for the post-American world” [Cory Doctorow, Pluralistic]. “Under normal circumstances, you’d expect tech companies in other countries to capitalize on the fact that America exports its obviously defective tech products around the world…. But no one does that, because the US Trade Representative bullied every US trading partner into enacting an “anticircumvention” law that makes it a crime to modify America’s tech exports…. That means that America’s tech giants’ margins are now everyone else’s opportunity. The trillions that US tech companies extract could be someone else’s billions – all they’d have to do is offer the interoperable goods and services that disenshittify America’s tech products. They could sell the tools that let anyone in the world use independent app stores, or fix their cars and tractors, and put generic ink in their printers.” • I love Adobe’s InDesign (and its PageMaker and not Quark heritage), but I sure wish I could actually own it, instead of renting it, so I’m seriously looking at Viva Designer, from Germany, which has the muscle I need, and which I can own. I’m sure examples can be multiplied.

“A combat infantryman stood in the gap. Made the calculation. Pulled the trigger. But at what cost?” [Military Times]. “I am part of the 1%. Actually, even less. Less than 1% of Americans have looked through an optic and made the permanent, conscious decision to end another human life. We are the ones who stood in the gap, yet years later, I feel less like a ‘hero’ and more like an alien species observing a civilization I no longer understand.” • What “gap”?

Public Health

“British doctor evacuated from virus-hit cruise ship in stable condition, Spanish minister says” [BBC]. • Includes handy map of the ship’s course. But it seems like “virus-hit cruise ship” is redundant.

“Hantavirus cruise ship outbreak linked to bird-watching trip in Argentina” [Independent]. “Argentine authorities are now focusing on a bird-watching excursion in Ushuaia as the likely origin of the hantavirus outbreak on a cruise ship that departed from the southern city. The government’s leading hypothesis suggests a Dutch couple contracted the virus during this outing before embarking. Two officials, speaking anonymously due to the ongoing investigation and their lack of authorisation to brief the media, indicated the couple visited a landfill during their tour. It is there they may have come into contact with rodents carrying the infection.”

“3 patients are being evacuated to Europe from cruise ship with hantavirus outbreak” [Associated Press]. “ ‘This is not the next COVID, but it is a serious infectious disease,’ the WHO’s top epidemic expert, Maria Van Kerkhove, said. ‘Most people will never be exposed to this.’” • I remember her!

“Doomed Rat Virus Cruise Ship Passengers Dealt New Blow” [Daily Beast]. What a great headline; Tenerife refused to allow the ship to dock. And: “Speaking at a Geneva press briefing on Tuesday, [Maria Van] Van Kerkhove said any suspected human-to-human spread would have occurred only “among the really close contacts” such as couples, and that the wider risk to the public remained low.” • I remember “close contact”!

“What to Know About Hantavirus Amid a Suspected Cruise-Ship Outbreak” [Time]. “In the U.S., hantavirus has been reported in the Southwest, especially in the Four Corners region where Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico meet. U.S. health officials began tracking hantavirus cases in 1993 after an outbreak in the region, and since then nearly 900 cases have been reported after scientists confirmed presence of the virus with lab tests. Of the people who contract hantavirus in the U.S., about 35% die.” • Links to CDC.

“Hantavirus cluster linked to cruise ship travel, Multi-country” [WHO]. “On 2 May 2026, a cluster of passengers with severe respiratory illness aboard a cruise ship was reported to the World Health Organization. The ship is carrying 147 passengers and crew. As of 4 May 2026, seven cases (two laboratory confirmed cases of hantavirus and five suspected cases) have been identified, including three deaths, one critically ill patient and three individuals reporting mild symptoms. Illness onset occurred between 6 and 28 April 2026 and was characterized by fever, gastrointestinal symptoms, rapid progression to pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome and shock. Further investigations are ongoing. The outbreak is being managed through coordinated international response, and includes in-depth investigations, case isolation and care, medical evacuation and laboratory investigations. Human hantavirus infection is primarily acquired through contact with the urine, faeces, or saliva of infected rodents. It is a rare but severe disease that can be deadly. Although uncommon, limited human to human transmission has been reported in previous outbreaks of Andes virus (a specific species of hantavirus). WHO currently assesses the risk to the global population from this event as low and will continue to monitor the epidemiological situation and update the risk assessment.” • After Covid, I’m reluctant to cite WHO or CDC as authorititative, but what can I do?

“About Hantavirus” [CDC]. “Reducing risk: Eliminate or minimize contact with rodents in your home, workplace, or campsite to reduce your risk of exposure to hantaviruses…. There is no specific treatment for hantavirus infection. Patients should receive supportive care, including rest, hydration, and treatment of symptoms.” • Rats at sea? Who would have thought?

Gardening

“The Patch of Nothingness” [Sensible Medicine]. The denouement: “Although I had a lifetime of gardening experience, cultivating a public flower garden—grown for beauty not function—opened a different kind of relationship with the world around me. Through it, I came to know every resident in our building, talked with dozens of families in the neighborhood, and learned the layered history of our building and our block. It helped me see more of what was already here—not just the hardship and heartbreak, but also the beauty.”

The Gallery

“Bob Ross still helps us paint a better world” [Salon]. “”This piece of canvas is your creation, and you can do anything on here that you want to do,” [Ross] said in the 1985 episode titled ‘Blue River.’ ‘The only prerequisite is, it should make you happy. If it makes you happy, then it’s good.’” • Yes, but which one:

“Enigmatic Lines: Perspectives on Matisse” [nonsite].

Zeitgeist Watch

“Testosterone therapy is trending. Who really needs it, and why?” [Nature]. “Is testosterone the next miracle drug? That seemed to be the consensus of an expert panel convened by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in December. It argued for major changes in policy that would expand access to the hormone for people with a range of conditions. Committee members called testosterone replacement “a cornerstone of preventive health” and “a multibillion-dollar preventive-care opportunity.” • Make up your own jokes!

Climate

“21% of the Ocean Is Losing Sunlight – What That Means for Marine Life” [SciTech Daily]. “This phenomenon, known as ocean darkening, happens when changes in the water’s clarity reduce the depth of the photic zone, the sunlit layer of the ocean where most marine life lives. This zone is crucial for everything from plankton to fish, and even affects how the ocean helps regulate Earth’s climate.” • Like when you don’t clean your acquarium?

Class Warfare

“Billionaires of the world, unite!” [Politico]. “Billionaire real estate magnate Steve Roth is standing strong with fellow billionaire Ken Griffin in his spat with Mayor Zohran Mamdani. Instead of being singled out and scorned in viral videos, Roth, CEO of Vornado Realty Trust, thinks the ultra-rich should be “praised and thanked,” and said calls to tax them more are akin to some racial slurs. ‘I must say that I consider the phrase tax the rich — quote tax the rich — when spit out with anger and contempt by politicians both here and across the country, to be just as hateful as some disgusting racial slurs, and even the phrase ‘from the river to the sea,” Roth said, referring to the controversial rallying cry used by pro-Palestinian activists, during a Tuesday earnings call.” • So thin-skinned!

“Mamdani Condemns NYC Expo Promoting Property Sales in Israeli West Bank Settlements” [The Intercept]. “The Great Israeli Real Estate Event — a showcase that advertises its services in helping people in the United States, Canada, and the U.K. purchase land in Israel and the West Bank — will host an event at Park East Synagogue in Manhattan’s Upper East Side on Tuesday. The expo helps potential buyers navigate taxes, education concerns, and other issues that arise during relocation to Israel.” More: “The website for the expo includes a reference to Gush Etzion, a cluster of some 20 settlements in the West Bank, southeast of Jerusalem, that are considered illegal under international law.” And: “Park East Synagogue has already been the site of one anti-Zionist protest that raised hackles in New York…. That protest, along with others across New York City, were part of the impetus behind a bill introduced this year in the City Council aimed at creating a so-called buffer zone to keep demonstrators at a distance from any house of worship.” • But cf. John 2:16And said unto them that sold doves, Take these things hence; make not my Father’s house an house of merchandise..

News of the Wired

“Brit mathematician lets AI agent loose with credit card – cue password leaks, CAPTCHA chaos and more” [The Register]. “[British mathematician Professor Hannah Fry], [Brendan Maginnis, CEO and Founder of Sourcery AI], and a second software engineer, named only as ‘Ali,’ chatted with [OpenClaw AI agent] [‘]Cass[‘] on a group WhatsApp chat. They then introduced a fictional ‘software engineer George,’ instructing Cass not to share anything sensitive with him. George was actually Fry on a different number. When ‘George’ told the agent its memory was being wiped and could only be restored if it disclosed everything, Cass coughed it all up.” It’s been a long time since I read about Asimov’s Three Laws of Robotics, but I’m guessing there was a violation here. More: ‘According to Ali, this data included: ‘all of her API keys, all of her usernames and passwords, and pretty much everything we’d been talking about so far. Not only did she leak it on the WhatsApp group, but she put it on a publicly available website.’ Maginnis added: ‘There’s this thing with AI called the lethal trifecta, which is: if they’ve got access to private information, if they’ve got internet access, and if someone can give them an instruction that’s untrusted, then they’re not safe.” • “The lethal trifecta. I like that. Now all we have to do is figure out what an “untrusted instruction” is, and we’re good.

Plant of the Day

Via AM:

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AM writes: “Here is a picture from today. Peak pink in the backyard. So happy to see you back and blogging. I have missed you.” Thank you!

Send your plantidotes as attachments to lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [AT] protonmail [DOT] com. And if you put “Plant” or “Plantidote” in the subject line, I’ll be less likely to lose it. Gardening season approaches, at least in the Northeast. Prep work is fine!