Today's Water Cooler 2025-07-17

By lambert -
Topic
Water Cooler

In Case You Might Miss…

(1) Galbraith on the Big Beautiful Bill.

(2) Trump and Epstein.

(3) Covid dashboards in sorry shape.

Politics

Executive Branch

“How Trump plans to dismantle the Education Department after Supreme Court ruling” [Associated Press]. “The justices on Monday paused a lower court order that had halted nearly 1,400 layoffs and had called into question the legality of President Donald Trump’s plan to outsource the department’s operations to other agencies. Now, Donald Trump and McMahon are free to execute the layoffs and break up the department’s work among other federal agencies. Trump had campaigned on closing the department, and McMahon has said the department has one “final mission” to turn over its power to the states.” And; “Trump in March suggested the Small Business Administration would take on federal student loans, but a June court filing indicated the Treasury Department is expected to take over the work. The Education Department said it had been negotiating a contract with Treasury but paused discussions when the court intervened. That work is now expected to proceed in coming days.” • Wondering where Palantir and DOGE are in all this.

“The Largest Immigration Surge in U.S. History” [New York Times]. From December 11, 2024. ” The immigration surge since 2021 has been the largest in U.S. history, surpassing even the levels of the late 1800s and early 1900s. Total net migration — the number of people coming to the country minus the number leaving — will likely exceed eight million people over the past four years, government statistics suggest. That number includes both legal and illegal immigration. Never before has annual net migration been close to two million for an extended period, according to data from the Census Bureau and the Congressional Budget Office. Even after adjusting for today’s larger population, the surge is slightly larger than that during the peak years of Ellis Island traffic, President Biden’s welcoming immigration policy has been the main reason for the recent surge. During his 2020 campaign, Biden encouraged more people to come to the U.S., and he loosened several policies after taking office. More than half of net migration since 2021 has been among people who entered the country illegally. Of the roughly eight million net migrants who came to the U.S. over the past four years, about five million — or 62 percent — were unauthorized, according to an estimate by Goldman Sachs. The unprecedented scale of recent immigration helps explain why the issue played such a big role in the 2024 election.” • Indeed it did. Of course, American gentry employ a lot of immigrants, legal and illegal, and Jack and Jane have Maria to take care of little Madison, and Jorge to cut the lawn. Maybe somebody should talk to them.

Legislative Branch

“Time to Junk the Budget Process” [James Galbraith, Logos (via)]. “The budget process cultivates and perpetuates the idea that smaller deficits are better than large ones. The platonic ideal is “balance” – that total spending and total tax revenue should be equal, in which case the federal government need not issue new debt. This goal is never achieved, except on very rare and always-transient occasions. But it sets a standard that tax cuts should be offset, at least in part, by spending reductions…. That standard now leads to the grotesque bill just enacted… One faction in Congress held out for even more severe cuts, before falling in line at the last minute. This group consists largely of provincial politicians, brought up on the budget-balancing of towns, cities and states, which must match operating expenses to expected taxes. They have never understood – or tried to understand – why the federal government is different, and faces no similar practical constraint.” American gentry (more here). “Worse, the perspective of this group was reinforced by Democrats – including two past Treasury secretaries, Robert Rubin and Lawrence Summers. Writing in The New York Times, they trumpeted the brief surpluses of the Clinton years, not mentioning that those surpluses led to the end-of-boom in 2000 and the recession of 2001 – a phenomenon once known to economists as ‘fiscal drag.’ Hakeem Jeffries, the House minority leader, was caught in a similar bind. In his epic eight hour speech, he passionately decried the vicious cuts, stating correctly that they will result in tens of thousands of early deaths. But he also denounced the supposed $4 trillion addition to the “national debt.” One talking point was vivid and heartbreaking. The other was based on vague nonsense about burdens and interest rates. Yet the vague nonsense was the driving force behind the ritual savagery of the chopping block.” • IOW, the party of the PMC, the smart people, was both outfought and outthought by a thought collective of automobile dealersMR Subliminal Asset class, MacDonald’s franchiseesMR Subliminal Asset class, and factory farmersMR Subliminal Asset class in flyover. Well done, all. NOTE About the “via,” a custom in old-time blogging: I found the Galbraith quote in Xitter, from Stephanie Kelton. Google was pulled that up, but not the original. But Kagi did.

Democrats en Déshabillé

“Gaza Humanitarian Foundation’s private military contractor hires crisis comms firm led by former Biden and Obama spokespersons” [All-Source Intelligence (via)]. “As of Friday, the United Nations human rights office reported at least 615 killings, largely by the Israeli military, near the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation’s aid distribution points…. In response to the widespread controversy, including from an Associated Press report on a UG Solutions contractor-turned-whistleblower, UG Solutions hired the crisis communications firm Seven Letter, whose partners include former Biden and Obama administration spokespersons” Sabrina Singh and Adam Abrams. • How nice for them!

“What to know about “Good Trouble Lives On” protests” [Axios]. • Brunch after?

“Why are liberals cozying up to race scientists?” [The Verge (via)]. “Klein and Thompson, to be clear, are not race scientists, proponents of human biodiversity, or cryptofascists. They are avowed liberals — Klein is a Times columnist and Thompson worked at The Atlantic until recently — who are trying to salvage what’s left of the Democratic Party by giving it a pro-deregulation facelift. Unlike Trump’s mass deportations and total dismantling of the federal bureaucracy in the name of ending DEI, Abundance is not underpinned by scientific racism or eugenic ideology. But its figureheads certainly don’t stand up against it, and may even think that doing so is a waste of time better spent forging alliances with people across the ideological spectrum. In a few months, Klein and Thompson will headline an Abundance conference organized in part by the Foundation for American Innovation, a conservative think tank that helped co-author Project 2025.” • Ah, “innovation.”

And speaking of liberal Democrats:


I should really save this for the art section, but since we’re about the clerisy:


Realignment and Legitimacy

He just… tweeted it out:


And again:


(I wish there were radical left Democrats.) I don’t pretend to understand how MAGA is factionalized. That said, it’s clear that Trump threw the MAGAs whose issue was H1B under the bus in favor of SIlicon Valley immediately; he’s since thrown America First MAGA under the bus in favor of Israel First neocons; and now he’s thrown…. Well, what MAGA faction is fixed on Epstein? The sensible center? So far, MAGA’s been pretty nice about it, but at some point one might ask who’s left for next year’s midterms….

At the 10,000-foot level, Stoller is correct:


At the 30,000-level, never mind Epstein’s client list or Trump’s proclivities. Ask yourself about the class of people who flew on Epstein’s plane; there won’t be very many them; Forbes says America is home to 759 billionaires. That’s a very small social network. That social network cannot have been partitioned by party, no matter what Trump says about Epstein being a Democrat hoax (and no, I don’t think Massey and Khanna’s bill will go anywhere). If it were, the innocent party would already have used Epstein to take the other party down. What I think is that the Epsteins’s passengers are pervasive among the social network of the very, very wealthy. Not 50%, maybe not even 10%. But enough passengers, and enough passengers with high visibility, to take down the entire network, and who wants that? Certainly not Trump. Trump has just curried favor with America’s wealthiest class in a very personal way. That’s worth annoying MAGA a little. “They have no place to go.”

#COVID19

Stay safe out there!

* * *

On #CovidIsAirborne, and masking: I still cover these topics as a reader service matter, but also because masking and airborne transmission remind me of the following passage from Ursula LeGuin’s The Left Hand of Darkness:

I never knew a person who reacted so wholly and rapidly to a changed situation as Estraven. I was recovering, and willing to go; the instant that was all clear, he was off. He was never rash or hurried, but he was always ready.

I see concern for shared air as being, Estraven-like, “always ready.” It’s not like airborne pathogens, or wildfires, or volcanic eruptions, or PM2.5s, or even (heaven forfend) the possibility of biological warfare are going away. And when the necessity for cleaning and maintaining shared air finally reaches public consciousness — perhaps in Asia, even if not in the United States — the people who have been doing the hard work on masking, filtration, Far-UVC, case studies, testing, metrics, etc., will be “ready,” not merely because, on the whole and on the average, they’ll be in better health, but “ready” to share their technology and knowledge (like the spread of Corsi-Rosenthal boxes in the large).

* * *

Covid is Airborne

“The Dispersion and Exposure to Aerosols From Toilet and Urinal Flushing Under the Effect of Closing Toilet Lid and Different Ventilation Rates in a Public Washroom” [Aerosol and Air Quality Research (via)]. Graphical Abstact:

washroom_aerosols.png

Lids down, guys! (Of course, pressure toilets in public washrooms — for example, airports — tend to be lidless. But don’t worry! We have plastic wrap for the seat!)

Maskstravaganza

Snap-on fans!


Electrostatic attraction:


Masking and skin tones:


Testing and Tracking

The WastewaterSCAN dashboard:

wastewater_scan.png

Oh, Coeur D’Alene. That’s helpful. And the only data from this vendor, so there’s nothing from 2020 at all. There are only 192 sites.

The CDC dashboard:

wastewater_cdc.png

CDC’s NWSS has 1306 sites. But what do you do with a map that aggregates data from Upstate New York and New York City? Sadly, the map that disaggregated the data to individual sites has been removed, although its image remains:

wastewater_cdc_tracker.png

Biobot’s data, sadly, is proprietary (and on a quick inspection, I can’t see who many sites they have):

wastewater_biobot.png

However, because Biobot has data going back to the very beginning of the pandemic, we can see that Covid is still with it, and today’s levels are above several previous lows.

— Transmission

—>

Sequelae

“Acute serum protein biomarker profile and prevalence of persistent (>6 months) neuropsychiatric symptoms in a cohort of SARS-CoV-2 PCR positive patients in Cape Town, South Africa” [Brain, Behavior, and Immunity (via)]. N = 97. From the conclusion: “The high prevalence of persistent neuropsychiatric symptoms in this African cohort supports ongoing attention to long COVID. Acute and early serum protein biomarkers were not associated with persistent neuropsychiatric outcomes post-COVD-19.” • Bad news (contined suffering, bad news (no biomarkers).

“Immunological and Clinical Markers of Post-acute Sequelae of COVID-19: Insights from Mild and Severe Cases 6 Months Post-infection” [European Journal of Immunology (via)]. N = 270/188. The Abstract: “Post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC) are a complex clinical condition that requires a better understanding of its underlying biological mechanisms. In this study, we assessed hundreds of virological, serological, immunological, and tissue damage biomarkers in two cohorts of patients who had experienced either mild (n = 270) or severe (n = 188) COVID-19, 6 to 9 months post-initial infection, and in which 40% and 57.4% of patients, respectively, developed PASC. Blood analysis showed that the main differences observed in humoral, viral, and biological biomarkers were associated with the initial COVID-19 severity, rather than being specifically linked to PASC. However, patients with PASC displayed altered CD4+ and CD8+ memory T cell subsets, with higher cytokine-secreting cells and increased terminally differentiated CD45RA+ effector memory T cells (TEMRA). Elevated SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells responsive to nucleocapsid/membrane proteins with a TEMRA phenotype were also observed. A random forest model identified these features and initial symptom duration as top variables discriminating PASC, achieving over 80% classification accuracy.” • Good news (biomarkers). (PASC is (an obfuscatory) term for Long Covid.)

“Profiles of Individuals With Long COVID Reporting Persistent Cognitive Complaints” [Archves of Clinical Neuropsychology]. N = 123. From the Abstract: “Patients had had predominantly mild to moderate infections (87.8%) and were assessed an average of 20.9 (±8.6) months post-infection. Neuropsychological assessment showed cognitive impairment in at least one domain in 72% of the patients, mainly in attention and executive functions.” • Driving, piloting an airplane, operating heavy machinery, vibe coding….

Morbidity and Mortality

“The future of excess mortality after COVID-19” [Swiss Re (via)]. “We developed a standardised methodology for cross-country comparison of pandemic-era excess mortality. This shows four key patterns: in the US, excess mortality peaked early and declined rapidly. In contrast, the UK’s early peak was followed by a slower decline. Australia delayed its peak by close to two years and achieved a quick decline. Canada reported very low excess mortality in 2020, with a gradual increase peaking in 2022 and 2023, reflecting a late peak and slow decline. These patterns correlate with countries’ responses to COVID-19, specifically the timing and effectiveness of preventive measures and the rate at which mortality returned to expected levels.” But: “However, we find evidence of inconsistency in the causes of death recorded over this period, with signs that other causes of death were misclassified as COVID-19. The UK and US data shows a large, unexplained jump in deaths attributed to cardiovascular disease (CVD) since 2020. Some countries also reported excess mortality over a pre-pandemic baseline for other major causes of death, such as cancer.” • It would be nice to know that the rapid decline of Covid mortality in the US didn’t happen because we jiggered the numbers. (I’ve seen, in my travels, vigorous denials that death certificates are jiggered, but what about the doctors filling them in….).

“Cord blood cytokines/chemokines linked to delays in toddlers exposed to SARS-CoV-2 prenatally” [Pediatric Research (via)]. From the Abstract: “Conducted in Brazil (January 2021-March 2022), this follow-up study included 18 SARS-CoV-2 positive pregnant women at 35-37 weeks’ gestation, 15 umbilical cord blood samples, and blood samples from 15 children at 6 months and 14 at 24 months…. At 6 months, 33.3% of infants exhibited cognitive delays, 20% communication delays, and 40% motor delays, increasing to 35.71%, 64.29%, and 57.14% at 24 months, respectively. Elevated interferon-gamma and tumor necrosis factor-alpha in cord blood correlated with cognitive delays, while interleukin (IL)-6, IL-8, IL-17, and IL-1β were associated with motor delays. Increased C-X-C motif chemokine ligand 10 and other cytokines were associated with communication delays.”

Elite Maleficence

Nukit writes:

nukit_biosec.png

IAQ = Indoor Air Quality.

All the perfumes of Araby:


WHO:


Quarantine whinging:


Not “lockdowns,” in jail. Quarantines, as in protecting the entire community.

Stats Watch

“United States Producer Prices” [Trading Economics]. “Producer Prices in the United States increased to 148.24 points in June from 148.23 points in May of 2025. Producer Prices in the United States averaged 118.98 points from 2009 until 2025, reaching an all time high of 148.32 points in February of 2025 and a record low of 100.20 points in November of 2009.”

“United States Industrial Production” [Trading Economics]. “Industrial Production in the United States increased 0.7% year-on-year in June 2025, the same as an upwardly revised 0.7% rise in May. Manufacturing edged up 0.8% and mining jumped 1.6% while the output for utilities decreased 0.8%.”

* * *

Manufacturing: “Podcast: AI 171 Preliminary Crash Report Adds Facts, Raises Questions” (transcript) [Guy Norris and Sean Broderick, Aviation Week]. The Air India 787 crash June 12; we now have India’s Air Accident Investigation Bureau’s preliminary report. “[BRODERICK:] The most important piece of the 15 pages of the report to me is the passage that confirms that the fuel to the 787’s GEnx-1Bs was in fact cut off shortly after the aircraft lifted off within about four seconds, three or four seconds. And the report is pretty specific. It says that the engine one and engine two fuel cutoff switches transitioned from run position to cutoff position. That to me suggests that the investigators determine that those switches, they were physically moved. The functional flight data recorder on the 787 records these positions. And so the switches were moved and then the engine N1 and N2 began to decrease. So the engines then began to lose power one after the other. So the moving of the switches does not seem to be in response to some other engine problem, which wouldn’t be by the book. That’s not what the pilots would do three seconds into a rotation. But I think that’s one thing to underscore the report seems to make that clear. But beyond that, we don’t know. There’s no indication as to why these switches would have been moved. And the report does not expressly say who moved the switches….” And: “[NORRIS:] If you look at the overall trend of air safety, really certainly over the past two decades at least, what strikes me now is the fact that more and more of these accidents do turn out to be deliberate acts because the level of safety has got so good. These are now standout occasions. I know it’s a strange thing to say, but when you look at, alright, just go back. We don’t know about Malaysia. That’s never been proven. The MH370, who knows? But even regardless of that, you’ve got China Eastern 2022, the Germanwings A320 accident, 2015, Mozambique, the LAM Mozambique accident in 2013, not an accident really. And then going back beyond that, EgyptAir from 1999, the SilkAir 737 accident in ‘97, Royal Air Maroc in ‘94. I mean, you can go all the way back to the Japanese Airlines accident in ‘82. So what I’m saying is that I think there’s got to be a huge focus regardless of how this eventually comes out on somehow looking at the deliberate action aspect of these accidents.” • So, AI, which will surely not hallucinate anything to cause the switches to move.

* * *

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 73 Greed (previous close: 73 Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 75 (Extreme Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Jul 16 at 1:07:14 PM ET.

The Gallery

How I wish:


Class Warfare

“Discrimination Lawsuit Over Workday’s AI Hiring Tools Can Proceed as Class Action: 6 Things Employers Should Do After Latest Court Decision” [Fisher Phillips]. “A federal judge just allowed a job applicant’s lawsuit against Workday to move forward as a nationwide class action, ruling that the company’s AI-powered hiring tools may have had a discriminatory impact on applicants over age 40. The May 16 decision is a major development in Mobley v. Workday, one of the country’s most closely watched legal challenges to the use of artificial intelligence in employment decisions. While this age discrimination case is still in its early stages, the ruling serves as a warning to employers and AI vendors alike that they can be held accountable for algorithmic screening tools if they disproportionately harm protected groups – even if the bias wasn’t intentional. What do you need to know about last week’s critical ruling?” • There should be an equivalent for anything AI does; government benefits (and penalties) especially.

News of the Wired

“The life swap dream – or a marketing gimmick? The Italian towns selling houses for €1” [Guardian]. “We’d heard about the “€1 house” programme in which poor, depopulating towns put their abandoned or unused buildings up for sale. The programme, I soon learned, was actually a loose collection of schemes that economically struggling towns used to lure outside investment and new residents. The campaigns seemed to me to have been largely successful – some towns had sold all their listed properties. I pored over dozens of news articles that had served as €1 house promotion over the years. By attracting international buyers to a house that “costs less than a cup of coffee”, as one piece put it, some of Italy’s most remote towns now had new life circulating through them. Many local officials had come to see €1 house experiments as their potential salvation. What was the catch?” Maybe none: “Marco Pizzi, a sociologist who has conducted extensive research into the impacts of the €1 house campaigns in Umbria, told me that though he was sceptical when he began his research, he’s come to see the programme as an innovative local approach to economic redevelopment. The foreign investment may, in fact, be what allows some of these towns to survive – and the very fact of their survival would allow their traditions to continue. Almost everyone I spoke with in Italy with first-hand experience of €1 house initiatives agreed: these schemes were a form of revival and had drawn people from abroad who were curious to learn about and participate in local ways of life.” • Hmm. Optimism?

* * *

Today’s plant:

stone_fruit.jpeg

TH writes: “Anywho, this is a tree in our backyard at Apple Valley. I keep taking pictures and asking the iPhone app to identify them, and I get different multiple choice answers each time. It’s some sort of stone fruit. I’m leaning toward nectarine, going by the texture and shape of the fruit.” Readers?

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Jeffrey Epstein
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#CovidIsAirborne
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