How Will We Know if DOGE Is Succeeding?

How will we know if DOGE is succeeding?

Some months have passed since DOGE started, and Musk has now left the project. How and when will we know if the Trump administration, through DOGE, has succeeded in its ambitious plans to downsize the federal government? A definitive evaluation may not be possible until a new president takes office on January 20, 2029. Yet, we can establish several numerical metrics:

• Did the number of people working for the federal government shrink?
• Did the number of federal contracts shrink?
• Did the amount of federal spending shrink?
• Did the size of the budget deficit shrink?

Here are some examples of how cuts can hamper the provision of basic services. For instance, when we look back at Trump’s second term:

• Was there an increase in the number of airline crashes?
• Were there contagious disease outbreaks?
• Were there major delays or mix-ups around the payment of social security checks or veterans’ benefits?
• Was there a terrorist attack, military failure, cybersecurity hack, or national security disaster linked to budget or staffing cuts in agencies responsible for those areas?

By using a combination of numerical and service delivery benchmarks, we can begin to assess how well DOGE has performed, whether it has achieved its specified objectives, and whether it has improved government performance. In this report, I examine currently available data about DOGE’s efforts in several areas to evaluate its initial accomplishments…..

But one thing we know. While the government in general is often unpopular, many pieces of it are not, and if they fail, as Harry Truman so famously said, “the buck stops here”: at the desk of the president.

NOTE Kamarck thinks Doge is “great deal of IT talent.” I disagree. I believe Doge peronnel were chosen for their social engineering skills, not engineering skills per se.