Today's Water Cooler 2026-05-12

Birdsong of the Day

Moar mimidae:

Carretera Viñales - Pons, Viñales CU-Pinar del Río, Pinar del Río, Cuba.

In Case You Might Miss…

(1) Trump Mobile T1 smartphone fails to ship.

(2) Bob Kagan throws in the towel.

(3) OpenAI Sued for Mass Shooting.

Politics

Trump Administration

“Musk, Cook expected to join Trump for Xi summit in China” [Bloomberg]. “The White House is inviting Tesla Inc.’s Elon Musk, Apple Inc.’s Tim Cook, Boeing Co.’s Kelly Ortberg and executives from other large companies to accompany President Donald Trump on his trip to China this week, according to an official. Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s David Solomon, Blackstone Inc.’s Stephen Schwarzman, BlackRock Inc.’s Larry Fink, Citigroup Inc.’s Jane Fraser and Meta Platforms Inc.’s Dina Powell McCormick are also on the list of those expected to join Trump’s delegation for his summit with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, a White House official said Monday.” Meta? Lol. More: “The group of more than a dozen top executives is joining Trump for a visit later this week that the US president hopes will unlock a series of business deals and purchase agreements with Beijing. It is comprised mostly of representatives of major financial, technology, aerospace and agricultural firms. US officials have said that Trump wants to finalize the details of a board of trade with China during the trip.”• So, the Iran war. Just a blip?

Election 2026

“How California’s Governor’s Race Became Such an Unholy Mess” [Benjamin Hart, New York Magazine]. “I spoke with Dan Walters, a venerable political journalist who is an opinion columnist at the nonprofit news site CalMatters.” Waters: “There’s a lot of unease with [Tom] Steyer, who’s the only other Democrat really in contention now. He’s an unknown quantity when it comes to governance, obviously a very rich man financing his own campaign. At the same time, he’s tried to establish himself as the champion of the progressive left by endorsing all of their holy-grail issues: single-payer health care, taxing the rich, all that. But he is, after all, a billionaire. He wouldn’t be particularly beholden to the unions and some of the other powerful entities in the party. So he’s an unknown quantity, whereas Becerra is a known quantity. There’s also a history of rich people trying to run for high office in California and failing. None of them has ever succeeded…. Meg Whitman spent $150 million trying to prevent Jerry Brown from becoming governor for the second time, back in 2010, and she failed miserably. In 1998, two self-funded candidates did what people called a murder-suicide act, and both of them lost. So there’s that history.”

“Mysterious Meddling in Democratic Primaries Has G.O.P. Fingerprints” [New York Times]. “A new mystery super PAC with ties to Republicans has spent more than $1 million meddling in at least three Democratic congressional primaries to select preferred opponents in what appears to be an effort to retain control of the House. Among the candidates the super PAC has begun spending to promote is a left-wing sex therapist in Texas who has been accused of bigotry and antisemitism by leaders in both parties. The group is also running ads in Democratic primaries in Pennsylvania and Nebraska, which holds its primary on Tuesday. The interventions in the opposing party’s primaries, apparently to elevate Democrats viewed as weaker candidates, suggest the race for control of the House has entered an intensive new phase in which both parties are vying for every imaginable edge. Some Republicans privately believe the party’s best chance to hold power this year is to cast Democrats as extremists. A second super PAC, this one formally aligned with House Republicans, has recently begun paying for mailers in a fourth race, in California, where the group is promoting the progressive credentials of a candidate facing a more moderate rival in the Central Valley. In three of the four races, the spending seeks to defeat candidates who are part of the Democratic Party’s ‘red to blue’ program, a special designation for top recruits in key races that could determine control of the House. Those three candidates are also backed by the Blue Dogs, a traditional centrist group of House Democrats.”

Republican Funhouse

“Evangelical Pastor Says Comparing 22-Foot Gold Trump Statue to ‘Golden Calf’ Is ‘Blasphemy’ ” [ARTnews]. “Earlier this month, the Trump National Doral golf course in Miami got a new resident: a 15-foot bronze sculpture of President Trump, finished with gold leaf. The statue, which rises to 22 feet with its pedestal, cost around $360,000…. If there was any worry that the golden effigy dubbed the ‘Don Colossus’ was just a bit too on the nose, have no fear: Pastor Mark Burns, who was involved in getting the statue erected, said at the unveiling ceremony on Wednesday that it was ‘not a golden calf,’ according to a Daily Beast report Sunday. ‘Let me be clear: this is not a golden calf, this statue is a celebration of life,’ Burns reportedly said. ‘It is a symbol of resilience, freedom, patriotism, strength, and the will power to keep fighting for the future of America.’” • Of course not. I feel sorry for anyone who could think such a thing.

“590,000 people paid a $100 deposit to pre-order a Trump phone. 11 months later, they’re still waiting for delivery” [Straight Arrow News]. “Nearly one year after the Trump Organization unveiled its mobile service provider, Trump Mobile, and its flagship smartphone, the T1, customers who pre-ordered — and partly paid for — their devices have still not received them…. Despite taking in more than $59 million in pre-order deposits from an estimated 590,000 buyers, the gold-colored phone, initially described as ‘Made in the USA,’ still does not have an official shipping date. President Donald Trump’s sons, Donald Jr. and Eric, first announced the T1 on June 15, 2025. The smartphone retails for $499 and was designed to work with Trump Mobile’s unlimited talk, text and data service plan for $47.45 per month….. Shipping of the T1 was initially promised by August of last year. Then it was delayed until December. When December came, customers were told they’d get their smartphones by mid-March 2026. But in March, the date was pushed back to April. Now, the Trump Mobile website lists no release date, and customers who put down $100 deposits remain empty-handed…. A change to the Preorder Deposit Terms and Conditions on the Trump Mobile website now states that a ‘deposit is not a purchase, does not constitute acceptance of an order, does not create a contract for sale, does not transfer ownership or title interest, does not allocate or reserve specific inventory, and does not guarantee that a Device will be produced or made available for purchase. A preorder deposit provides only a conditional opportunity if Trump Mobile later elects, in its sole discretion, to offer the Device for sale,’ the text reads.”• China’s good at making phones. Maybe Trump can ask them for help on his trip.

“SHOCK POLL: Marco Rubio Beats JD Vance by Double Digits in 2028 Primary Showdown” [Mediate]. “A shocking new poll from AtlasIntel suggests that there may be a new favorite to win the Republican Party’s presidential nomination in 2028. According to the survey, which was conducted between May 4-7 and included a sample size of 2,069 American adults, a plurality (45.4%) of Republican respondents now identify Secretary of State Marco Rubio as their preferred choice to carry the GOP’s banner two years from now. Vice President JD Vance, who has long held the pole position in the race, finished in second with 29.6%, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) at 11.2%.” • Thirsting for a Rubio/Harris matchup [bangs head on desk].

Democrats en Déshabillé

“Democrats Have a Joe Biden Problem. Again.” [The New Republic]. Dracula has risen from the grave!” [Biden’s] back to haunt the Democrats. Last week, he waded into two primaries, endorsing candidates who had worked for his 2024 campaign and who asked for his support this year.” No party discipline at all. More: “As Semafor’s David Weigel has observed, Biden nostalgia is also creeping into other races, particularly California’s cramped gubernatorial primary, where the ascendent Xavier Becerra regularly touts his service as Biden’s secretary of health and human services.” Key point from pollster Elliot Morriss: “Two specific themes show up [among Independents] that don’t appear in the Democratic column: The first is a lingering Biden grievance: independents in our open-end repeatedly cite the party ‘lying about Biden’s health,’ keeping his campaign going ‘far too long,’ and ‘anointing’ Kamala Harris as the nominee without a competitive process. The second is a leadership vacuum complaint—variations on ‘lack of leadership’ and ‘I don’t know what they stand for.’” • Independents know Democrats better than Democrats know themselves.

“A Private Call Reveals Democrats’ Desperation Over Tossing of Map” [New York Times]. “During a private discussion on Saturday that included Democratic House members from Virginia and Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York, the minority leader, the lawmakers vented anger at their defeat at the Virginia Supreme Court, spoke about a collective determination to flip two or three Republican-held seats under the existing map and discussed a bank-shot proposal to redraw the congressional lines anyway, according to three people who participated in the call and two others who were briefed on it. They did not land on a specific course forward, and Mr. Jeffries and the other members of Congress agreed to consult with their lawyers about the most prudent way to proceed, said the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe a private talk. The conversation reflected the desperation and fury that have gripped the party after the state Supreme Court struck down a favorable map that had been ratified by voters. The most dramatic idea they discussed — which would involve an unusual gambit to replace the entire state Supreme Court, with a goal of reinstating their gerrymandered map — drew mixed reactions on the call, said the people, and it was not clear that it would even be viable, or palatable to Gov. Abigail Spanberger and Democrats in the Virginia General Assembly.” • I don’t see how CIA Democrat Spanberger can stage a Presidential run under such conditions….

Realignment and Legitimacy

“What Americans mean when they say they’re worried about a stolen election” [Politico]. “But both parties clash strongly over what they believe are the core problems with U.S. elections, complicating any path to restoring voter trust…. Democrats are concerned about voter intimidation and suppression, with 58 percent of those who voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris worried that eligible Americans will be prevented from voting, the survey finds. Meanwhile, Republicans remain focused on the possibility of fraud, with 52 percent of Trump voters saying they are concerned that some ineligible people will be allowed to vote.

I’d like to see the question of buying elections, as opposed to stealing them, integrated into these results.

Geopolitics

“Checkmate in Iran” [Robert Kagan, The Atlantic]. “It’s hard to think of a time when the United States suffered a total defeat in a conflict, a setback so decisive that the strategic loss could be neither repaired nor ignored…. Defeat in the present confrontation with Iran will be of an entirely different character. It can neither be repaired nor ignored. There will be no return to the status quo ante, no ultimate American triumph that will undo or overcome the harm done. The Strait of Hormuz will not be ‘open,’ as it once was. With control of the strait [but see below], Iran emerges as the key player in the region and one of the key players in the world. The roles of China and Russia, as Iran’s allies, are strengthened; the role of the United States, substantially diminished. Far from demonstrating American prowess, as supporters of the war have repeatedly claimed, the conflict has revealed an America that is unreliable and incapable of finishing what it started. That is going to set off a chain reaction around the world as friends and foes adjust to America’s failure.” • Shorter Kagan: The Empire went belly up, thanks to Donald Trump (inadvertantly or advertantly, the result is what matters). Is that very so bad, really? Yes, removing the imperial face hugger from the American body politic will be extremely painful, and you can bet the pain won’t be equally shared (especially the pain of liberals screaming “No, not that way!”). But didn’t (doesn’t) it have to be done?

“The Hormuz Crisis and China’s Energy Security Dilemma” [ John Calabrese, The Diplomat]. “China’s energy system is frequently described as relatively secure, with overall self-sufficiency exceeding 80 percent due to coal’s dominant role and the rapid expansion of renewable energy. Yet this aggregate measure obscures a critical imbalance. China remains heavily import-dependent for the liquid fuels essential to transportation, petrochemicals, and industrial activity – particularly crude oil. China imports roughly 4 billion barrels of crude annually, with a substantial share sourced from the Gulf and transported along maritime routes that traverse multiple strategic chokepoints. This creates a deep-seated asymmetry between domestic energy abundance and external exposure. While China’s internal energy base appears robust, its oil supply is embedded in a global system shaped by external actors, contested geographies, and security arrangements beyond its direct control. Gulf producers – including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Kuwait, and Qatar – account for roughly two-fifths of China’s crude imports. This dependence is not merely quantitative but systemic, reflecting both the scale of Gulf production and the lack of viable substitutes capable of matching it. Moreover, official trade data understates China’s exposure.”

“Shipping Companies Leverage Arabian Peninsula Truck Routes to Bypass Hormuz” [Maritime Executive]. “With the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed, logistics operators are working out how to get consignments to and from Gulf destinations previously served by ports that are now in effect blocked to external traffic… One immediate beneficiary has been traffic flow on Route 95, which starts from the Saudi town of Alkwifiriah close to the Saudi-Qatari border crossing at Salwa…. The route has cut the travelling time between the start and end points by 16 hours…. Saudi Arabian Railways is developing five new logistics routes, based on a pre-war plan to get traffic off roads and onto the railway…. The Kingdom will also need to develop further the capacity of the heavily used Northern International Highway Route 85, which stretches from Dammam, through Riyadh, and then along the northern border following the course of the old Trans-Arabian Pipeline to Al Hadithah on the Jordanian border…. The main challenge to developing new logistic routes has been a shortage of trucks and drivers, a problem which no doubt will be solved quickly by the attractions of winning extra revenues for those already in the business. The other major issue is the throughput capacity of the ports now being brought into the new logistics networks.” • I’m not seeing analysis of the throughput capacity of the landroutes as opposes to ships, though.

Rapture Index: Closes down one on Oil Supply/Price. “Despite all the fighting in the Middle East, oil prices have declined” [Rapture Ready]. Record High, October 10, 2016: 189. Current: 182. (Remember that bringing on the Rapture is good.) • I’d never checked the FAQ for this site. It’s everything I expected, and more.

Photo Book

“In ‘Reverence,’ Three Decades of Paul Nicklen’s Remarkable Photographs Exalt Nature” [This is Collossal]. “Known for his stunning photos of wildlife and landscapes, as well as co-founding SeaLegacy alongside fellow conservationist and photographer Cristina Mittermeier, Paul Nicklen has traveled the globe to not only highlight our planet’s phenomenal biodiversity but also to shed light on its increasing vulnerabilities due to the ongoing climate crisis…. From the root-like system of the Colorado River delta to narwhals feeding on cod in the Arctic Bay off Baffin Island, Nicklen’s photos illuminate the vast and resilient beauty of the natural world. ‘Reverence is what we feel in the silent presence of a whale beneath the ice, in the fierce gaze of a polar bear, in the timeless dance of ocean and light,’ says a statement. “It is what the natural world evokes when we stop long enough to truly see it.’” For example:

I dunno. The photos at the link are technically brilliant. But I’m tired of being hit over the head, which I feel Nicklen’s photos do. I think it’s possible to have reverence, even awe, for the mundane.

Zeitgeist Watch

“In underground breastmilk donation networks, motherhood transcends politics and theology” [Religion News Service]. “While the practice has existed for centuries, more parents turned to informal breast milk sharing during the 2022 baby formula shortage, according to reporting in The New York Times. The uptick was facilitated by the growth of Facebook groups like ‘Human Milk for Human Babies,’ founded in 2010 by Emma Kwasnica, a breastmilk advocate from Montreal, Canada, that connect donors and parents and saw an increase in new users around that time. The virtual communities are run by volunteers, according to HM4HB’s website. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration does not recommend feeding babies milk obtained directly from individuals, citing safety risks from lack of screening, possible contamination and improper handling. Although data on the phenomenon is limited, a 2018 study found that 12% of American parents had donated milk, while 7% had fed their babies donated milk. Most do so to clear their stock, though many social media posts also mention wanting to help other families. And for parents who could end up spending between $16 and $20 on a 4 fluid-ounce milk bank bottle, the practice is also appealing from an economic perspective. Although centralized, institutionalized milk bank systems can offer quick and easy — if costly — solutions for parents in need of milk, those who partake in informal sharing say it has created an opportunity for new parents to come together and share their birth stories.” • I wonder how prevalent this practice is, globally?

News of the Wired

Plant of the Day

Via AM:

AM writes: “An invasive species I think - possibly Japanese Knotweed - in Moyasta, Western County Clare Ireland. Viewed on my walk on a single lane country road.”

Dear readers, I [am (!!)] still just a bit short on Plantidotes! Thanks to the readers who more Plantidotes in! (It’s helpful to have one Plantidote for each email. I track the Plantidotes I have run by whether I have opened the mail or not, and when there are several Plantidotes in one mail and I use one, I have to remember to mark the mail unread so that I remember to return to the mail for the rest. And if I’m in a rush, that’s a source of error. Thank you!

Send your plantidotes as attachments to lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [AT] protonmail [DOT] com. And if you put “Plant” or “Plantidote” in the subject line, I’ll be less likely to lose it. Gardening season approaches, at least in the Northeast. Prep work is fine!