Today's Water Cooler 2026-05-13

By lambert –
Topic(s)
Water Cooler

Birdsong of the Day

Moar mimidae:

Zaachila, Oaxaca, Mexico.

In Case You Might Miss…

Politics

Trump Administration

“Young Woman Fueling Trump’s Wild Midnight Sprees Is Exposed” [Daily Beast]. “Members of President Donald Trump’s inner circle are secretly fed up with the aide who is enabling his unhinged late-night Truth Social rampages. Most nights, the president fires off dozens of posts attacking his political enemies, amplifying conspiracy theories, spreading AI-slop videos and images, and boosting offensive content from obscure MAGA accounts on X and his own Truth Social platform. But despite the odd hours, Trump isn’t doing it all alone, according to a new report in the Wall Street Journal.” And: “His executive assistant Natalie Harp is the driving force behind some of his most incendiary content, including a racist video that depicted Barack and Michelle Obama as apes, and an AI-generated image of Trump as Jesus Christ, both of which Trump later took down. Harp, who is in her mid-30s, brings the president stacks of printed-out drafts of social media posts—many of them recycling content from other accounts—for Trump to approve, sources told the Journal.” Trump is an executive of the old school, I see. And: “The process has frustrated some White House officials because Harp doesn’t share her proposed posts with the chief of staff’s office, communications aides, or national-security officials, sources told the Journal.” • [musical interlude].

“Marty Makary out as FDA chief” [Axios]. “As the administration looks to pivot away from vaccine controversies, Trump’s choice to replace Makary will send a strong signal about whether he’s really looking for policy changes. Finding someone industry welcomes and MAHA does not despise may be a bit of a challenging channel to navigate,” Raymond James analyst Chris Meekins wrote in an investor note prior to the announcement.” • None of the coverage I’ve seen mentions Makary’s stellar work at the Brownose Institute.

Republican Funhouse

“Exclusive: How the White House is justifying its $1B East Wing ask” [Axios]. “The administration is making the case that the project isn’t simply about funding a new White House ballroom, as Democrats have claimed [and how it was sold], but rather that it will also fund a broad array of new security measures. A one-page document…. reviewed by Axios, will break down the funding costs. $220 million for ‘hardening’ security at the White House complex, including ‘bulletproof glass, drone detection technologies, chemical and other threat filtration and detection systems.’” • Given that two can play the decapitation game, that probablyi makes sense.

“White House East Wing debris dumped at nearby golf course has toxic metals, report says” [Associated Press]. “An interim report by a Virginia engineering firm says the toxic metals, along with PCBs, pesticides, petroleum byproducts and other chemicals were detected at levels above laboratory reporting limits in soil at the East Potomac Golf Links, a historic golf course that President Donald Trump plans to renovate…. Debris from the East Wing demolition is so prevalent that it causes golfers to detour around piles of it, Miller said. ‘If you Google you’ll see lots of photos of golfers walking past it,’ [preservationist Rebecca Miller] said in an interview.”

“Group suing to stop Trump ‘takeover’ alerts judge to even more proof that a ‘massive’ golf course ‘overhaul’ is in the works, not just ‘maintenance’ ” [Law & Crime]. “One week after a federal judge warned the DOJ there would be ‘serious consequences’ if the Trump administration uses routine maintenance as cover for bulldozing East Potomac Park Golf Course, the group that sued to stop the ‘takeover’ says there’s even more proof that the project is ‘a massive overhaul, not merely restoration and required maintenance.’” • The filing.

“Trump Slammed For Replacing Reflecting Pool’s Original Coconut Flavor With Blue Raspberry” [The Onion]. Preservationist Marie Pagano: “To see the pool filled with blue raspberry despite Lincoln’s lifelong opposition to sour, tangy flavors, is an obscenity. Each year, millions of National Mall tourists drink from the Reflecting Pool to share in the coconut undergirding our very democracy. The tart fruitiness will no doubt shock and offend them.” Pagano went on to say, however, that she was relieved the pool would remain highly carbonated, like the soda water Lincoln frequently enjoyed.”

Democrats en Déshabillé

“Bruce Springsteen’s Tour Is an American Revival That Succeeds Where Democrats Fail” [Rolling Stone]. “ ‘Let fury have the hour,’ Morello shouted, as the E Street Band channeled the Clash way more credibly than anyone could’ve imagined when London Calling and The River were both on the charts. ‘Anger can be power.” Really? How exactly? I like Springsteen’s music. But:

The tour’s speeches, delivered almost identically each night, should not be overlooked in a moment when the Democratic party seems leaderless, its highest-ranking officials apparently overwhelmed by the ever-growing list of Trumpian outrages. Springsteen’s message is so simple and clear that it’s shocking actual politicians seem unable to adopt it. He refuses to let the horrors inflicted upon Minnesota be forgotten. He reminds us of DOGE‘s pointless evisceration of [color revolution-sponsoring] USAID, and the countless deaths overseas in its wake: ‘It’s not on the front pages anymore,’ he said at the Garden, and at every stage so far, ‘but it’s happening now. People are dying.’ He’s had to add to the list of horrors as the tour goes on, now mentioning the Supreme Court’s attack on the Voting Rights Act, and the sea-shell-based persecution of James Comey. Overall, he revives an idea that came up so often in Trump’s first term that it somehow became a liberal-bashing joke: This is not normal

That’s it? That’s the message? A message about as vacuous as it can be? “Democrats are against the bad things”? How long ago it seemsa when “Genocide Joe” was, justly, a thing. More:

“We are now, to many, America the reckless, unpredictable, predatory, rogue nation,” Springsteen said. “Honesty, honor, humility, truth, compassion, humanity, thoughtfulness, morality, true strength and decency — don’t let anybody tell you that these things don’t matter anymore — they do…. So join us and let’s fight for the America that we love.”

Bruce. Maybe we could at least name the problem? Name it and claim it, as they say. Empire? Billionaires? Capitalism?

“Nonprofits say they are in a crisis” [Axios]. “The country’s nonprofit sector — organizations from food banks and homeless shelters to immigrant aid groups — is facing a crisis in the wake of federal funding cuts, advocates say. The nation’s most vulnerable people rely on these groups for help — and demand for services has increased over the past year amid higher inflation and cuts to federal programs like SNAP, or food stamps. Data on the sector as a whole is hard to come by, but a new survey out Tuesday offers a look at the situation. 66% of the nonprofits surveyed in February by the Center for Effective Philanthropy said they have concerns about their organization’s financial stability. The share of respondents reporting a deficit — more money going out than coming in — rose to 39%, from 22% in 2022. Almost three-quarters of CEOs report that their organizations have experienced increased demand for services.” • Maybe Democrats outsourcing government to NGOs wasn’t the best idea.

Geopolitics

“Trump says war on Iran not ‘done’ — but concerns rise about munitions shortages” [Military Times]. “[R]etired Navy captain and former astronaut Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., raised concerns about dwindling U.S. munitions amid the war. Kelly, citing multiple classified Pentagon briefings, asserted that American inventories of Tomahawks, Army Tactical Missile Systems, SM-3 interceptors, Terminal High Altitude Area Defenses (THAADs) and Patriots had been significantly drawn down over the course of the conflict.’ ‘I think it’s fair to say it’s shocking how deep we have gone into these magazines, he told “Face The Nation’ on Sunday. ‘We’ve expended a lot of munitions. And that means the American people are less safe. Whether it’s a conflict in the western Pacific, with China or somewhere else in the world, the munitions are depleted.’… In the first 39 days of the air and missile campaign against Iran, the U.S. military burned through nearly half of its stockpiles of several key munitions, according to an analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The systems affected included Patriot and THAAD interceptors, as well as Precision Strike Missiles. Replenishing those inventories to prewar levels is projected to take up to four years.” • I dunno if the empire will want to wait four years for another war. Can’t we do something?

“Why Physical Crude Premiums Collapse Despite the Hormuz Crisis” [OilPrice.com]. “Physical crude premiums have collapsed from more than $30 above Brent to near parity as refiners delay purchases, draw down inventories, cut refinery runs, and rely on strategic reserve releases despite the ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruption.

China’s sharp drop in crude imports, early refinery maintenance, and record U.S. crude exports have temporarily eased pressure on physical markets. Analysts warn the relief may be short-lived, with buffers rapidly thinning ahead of peak summer demand, raising the risk of another sharp spike in both physical and paper oil prices if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.” • China’s central planning saved us!

“India’s PFBR attains criticality at last” [NuclearNewsWire]. “Prime Minister Narendra Modi proclaimed it “a proud moment for India” when on April 6 the 500-MWe, sodium-cooled Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR) achieved initial criticality. This milestone, which comes some 22 years after the continually delayed PFBR project began, marks India’s entrance into the second stage of its three-stage nuclear program, which has the ultimate goal of supporting the country’s nuclear power program with its significant thorium reserves. In contrast to its relatively small uranium deposits, India has a plentiful amount of thorium. The end goal of the country’s nuclear plan is to leverage that thorium to reduce its reliance on imported uranium and create a (theoretically) closed fuel cycle. The first stage of the plan focuses on building pressurized heavy water reactors (like much of India’s current fleet) that use natural and low-enriched uranium fuel. In the second stage, spent fuel from these PHWRs, along with thorium, would be used in a fast breeder reactor (like the PFBR) to breed fissile uranium-233. In the third stage, India aims to achieve large-scale power production from thorium by way of the U-233 generated in the breeder reactors, which would be used to fuel a new generation of advanced heavy water reactors.” • We’ll see.

Pandemics

Stay safe out there!

* * *

Hantavirus is Airborne

“Hantavirus outbreak should reset WHO’s default approach to airborne risk” [BMJ]. “The multinational outbreak of Andes hantavirus (ANDV) linked to cruise ship travel should prompt the World Health Organization (WHO) to change its default response to the risk of airborne transmission of the virus. Hantavirus is a pathogen with documented person-to-person transmission and high case fatality. Therefore, the starting point should not be to downplay the risk of airborne transmission until it is definitively proven. The starting point should be the immediate adoption of precautionary measures to reduce airborne transmission, such as respirator use by healthcare workers, cases, and close contacts; ventilation optimisation; avoidance of unfiltered air recirculation; and portable HEPA (high efficiency particulate air) filtration in all enclosed quarantine and transport settings.” • We learn nothing.

“The Close, Prolonged Contact Myth” [Joseph Allen, The Atlantic]. “In any outbreak, the single most important question is: How does it spread? The answer informs the guidance for everything else, including how to stay safe, which protective measures to put in place, and who should be notified during contact tracing. Get it wrong and everything else breaks down. We made this mistake at the start of the coronavirus pandemic, and the cost was high.” And: “As an expert in what we call ‘exposure science,’ I have spent a career conducting forensic investigations to understand how diseases spread and what we should do about it. As a member of the Lancet COVID-19 Commission, I chaired the Safe Work, Safe School, and Safe Travel task force, and was an early proponent of the theory that COVID spreads through the air. There was evidence early on of airborne transmission, which my colleagues and I tried to draw attention to. We modeled the early-2020 outbreak of the disease on the Diamond Princess cruise ship and found that 90 percent of the spread was through aerosols, not contaminated surfaces, but the CDC didn’t update its guidance until late 2020. I am alarmed to see the same pattern playing out now.” And: “Although the NEJM [here and see below] evidence is clear, officials have kept repeating ‘prolonged, close contact,’ so I wanted to be sure I wasn’t missing anything. Last week I spoke with a physician who was on the MV Hondius as a passenger but who jumped in to help treat infected passengers after the ship’s official doctor got sick and was evacuated. He told me that the original treating doctor and staff were definitely in close contact with the first patient. But the others who got sick? They had merely shared space in the dining room and the lecture hall, and had not had close contact. We’re now at 10 confirmed cases from the ship, which aligns with the prior outbreak dynamics: one person infecting many, no close contact required.” • Sigh.

“Cruise passenger shows life inside Nebraska quarantine after hantavirus exposure scare” [FOX]. This detail leaped out: “In one recent clip, [Jake] Rosmarin showed his room, which included a wall-mounted hand sanitizer, a thermometer and other health provisions. The room also featured a stationary bike.” • OK, fomite transmission is covered. But never a word on airborne, by passenger or reporter!

“Why is Aerosol Viral Spread in Animals and Humans So Challenging to Admit?” [Hogvet51’s Livestock Emerging and Zoonotic Disease Forum]. “Perhaps no one wants to publicly admit the uncertainties that aerosol spread entail. We can avoid ‘prolonged contact’, disinfect fomites, observe safe distances, segregate infected fluids, etc. However, infected air (dust) is a non-mitigatable wild card to some degree. We WANT to reassure stakeholders that ‘X’ distance or ‘Y’ time is sufficient to prevent transmission. In our haste to provide reassurance, we build public overconfidence which then leads to a sense of betrayal when evidence proves reassurances to be overstated.” • No kidding.

“ ‘Super-Spreaders” and Person-to-Person Transmission of Andes Virus in Argentina’ [NEJM]. “From November 2018 through February 2019, person-to-person transmission of Andes virus (ANDV) hantavirus pulmonary syndrome occurred in Chubut Province, Argentina, and resulted in 34 confirmed infections and 11 deaths…. After a single introduction of ANDV from a rodent reservoir into the human population, transmission was driven by 3 symptomatic persons who attended crowded social events. After 18 cases were confirmed, public health officials enforced isolation of persons with confirmed cases and self-quarantine of possible contacts; these measures most likely curtailed further spread. The median reproductive number (the number of secondary cases caused by an infected person during the infectious period) was 2.12 before the control measures were enforced and decreased to 0.96 after the measures were implemented…. On the basis of evidence from five reconstructed person-to-person transmission events, the route of infection in secondary cases was possibly through inhalation of droplets or aerosolized virions.” • The former “in the air” (tiny loogies), the latter airborne (aerosols, spread like smoke).

Maskstravaganza

Even the CDC:


Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions

“US vs Europe: huge differences in protocol for passengers of hantavirus-hit ship” [France24]. “Maes agreed. “How much is one life worth compared to 150 others that you put in quarantine?” [Piet Maes, a virologist at the University of Brussels and head of the International Hantavirus Society] asked. ‘If you can save one life, you should do it.’” • Not in the United States. Here, we ask WWJD: “Infect thy neighbor as thyself.”

Censorship and Propaganda

“The Hantavirus Outbreak Is Resurrecting Covid-Era Misinformation Tactics” [New York Times]. “Social media platforms are primed to spread disinformation, with algorithms and revenue-sharing policies that reward sensationalized content. Advances in artificial intelligence tools have made it easier to produce photographs and short videos that can be hard to distinguish from real information.” • Hyperscaling…

Sequelae

“Presence and Persistence of Andes Virus RNA in Human Semen” [Viruses] MDPI)]. From the Abstract: “In this study, we present the follow-up of a male patient who recovered from HCPS six years ago. We demonstrate that the ANDV genome persists within the reproductive tract for at least 71 months. Genome sequence analysis early and late after infection reveals a low number of mutations (two single nucleotide variants and one deletion), suggesting limited replication activity. We can exclude the integration of the viral genome into the host genome, since the treatment of the specimen with RNAse led to a loss of signal. We demonstrate a long-lasting, strong neutralizing antibody response using pseudovirions expressing the ANDV glycoprotein. Taken together, our results show that ANDV has the potential for sexual transmission.” •

Elite Maleficence

“World ‘unprepared’ for next pandemic as countries fail to agree on sharing information, tests and vaccines” [Guardian]. “The main dispute is broadly between developed and developing countries. Negotiating blocs such as the Group for Equity and the Africa Group want a standard contract that makes it mandatory for pharmaceutical companies to share any medical products developed as a result of countries sharing dangerous pathogens with them. Several European countries have argued this could stifle research and development and reportedly proposed a hybrid model, with a mix of mandatory and voluntary requirements. The plan had been to present an agreed Pabs system for approval in Geneva this month. However, a statement from negotiators said they needed more time, suggesting the 2027 World Health Assembly as the new deadline.”

Rapture Index: Closes down one on Oil Supply/Price. “Despite all the fighting in the Middle East, oil prices have declined” [Rapture Ready]. Record High, October 10, 2016: 189. Current: 182. (Remember that bringing on the Rapture is good.) • I’d never checked the FAQ for this site. It’s everything I expected, and more.

Guillotine Watch

“Tourist yells ‘I’m rich’ after beachgoers beg him to stop attacking endangered seal — before he’s detained” [Independent]. “The man was filmed lifting a large rock from a beach and throwing it towards an endangered seal as it swam off the Lahaina shoreline last Tuesday, narrowly missing the animal’s head. Kaylee Schnitzer, who filmed the video, can be heard yelling at the man: “What are you doing? Why would you throw a rock at it?” She later told KHON 2: ‘We told him that we called the cops, and he was like, ‘I don’t care. Fine me, I’m rich.’ He said that, and he kept walking.’”

“The Luxury Buyer Has Changed. Most Dealers Haven’t” [Automotive Risk Newsletter]. “I’ve been selling luxury cars in Southern California for over two decades. I’ve seen rate cycles, inventory crunches, market corrections. I’ve watched buyers walk in with printouts, then iPads, now with more research than some of my salespeople carry in their heads…. I had a woman come in twice on an E-Class last quarter. Beautiful deal on paper. Strong trade. Clean credit. She went quiet after the second set of numbers and said she wanted to sleep on it. My manager’s instinct was to chase her with a follow-up call the next morning. I told him to send a handwritten note instead, just thanking her for her time and telling her the car would be there when she was ready. She came back four days later and bought. No negotiation. She said, and I’m paraphrasing, that nobody had ever made her feel less pressured on a car deal. That’s what’s closing deals right now. Not the word track. Not the four-square. The feeling that the person across from you actually gives a damn whether you make the right decision.” • Concierge car dealership. You can bet you won’t get that if you’re not a “luxury buyer.”

“People Who Don’t Like People Are Making All of Our Decisions” [The Atlantic]. “Sebastian Thrun, the roboticist and former head of Google’s self-driving project, said recently. ‘Think of the 1.2 million lives we lose each year (to car crashes), mostly because they’re not paying attention. Think if we could get some of those lives back.’ That number is correct. But that figure is global, and more than 90 percent of the fatalities occur in low- and middle-income countries (ones that are not part of Waymo’s or Tesla’s expansion plans).” More: “Most of us live in silos, clustered together with people whose jobs, educations, incomes, languages, and faiths are similar to or the same as our own. We have few occasions to brush against other ways of living, few ways to interact with people of different backgrounds. These moments are meaningful and rare, and the taxi cab is one place where they regularly happen.” And: “And maybe that’s the problem for the titans of Silicon Valley. Compared with robots, humans take a lot of effort. “I cannot imagine having gone through figuring out how to raise a newborn without ChatGPT,” Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, said recently. Artisan, an AI start-up, advertises its services with the explicit slogan “Stop Hiring Humans.” We are living in the ultimate revenge of the nerds, driven by a crew of socially awkward tech bros who won’t stop until the society that they never quite fit into is obliterated… Do we want these people dictating profound changes in our society?” • Imagine having a hallucinating, sycophantic nanny raise your child. Then again, it’s Silicon Valley, so maybe all the players are microdosing acid. Then I again, I’ve never heard that acid promoted sycophancy…

Class Warfare

“Same Shock, Different Roads? A K‑Shaped Pattern at the Pump” [Liberty Street Economics]. “We find that households had very different experiences with gasoline spending: in March, high-income households increased nominal spending the most and kept real consumption essentially unchanged, while low-income households decreased real consumption of gasoline but still saw sharply increased nominal spending because of the rise in gas prices. Therefore, with the sharp increases in gasoline prices in March, a K-shaped pattern in gasoline consumption emerged—showing faster consumption growth for high-income households relative to low-income households. These gasoline consumption patterns qualitatively match those following the increase in energy prices at the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war in spring 2022, even though the gap in consumption trends during the current episode is quantitatively larger.”

“Marrying for power: Gendered alliances in mafias” [PLOS One]. First, powerful clans indeed occupy structurally privileged seats—boasting higher degree, betweenness, closeness, and eigenvector centrality—validating that reputational authority aligns with positional advantage. Second, the network’s cohesion depends disproportionately on marriages among less influential families: these inter-peripheral ties are the true ‘load-bearing’ bridges, while powerful clans are associated with redundant, overlapping unions. Third, although powerful families on average receive more brides, the difference is not statistically significant… Together, these findings underscore marriage as a calibrated organizational technology—one that both consolidates lineage and extends outreach, at once further enhancing powerful families and binding the periphery into a resilient whole.” • Making “the Red Wedding” the exception, not the rule. Fortunately!

* * *

“The Super-Rich are Different from You and Me” [Paul Krugman]. “New York City is not at this point a city for the working class or or the middle class. It’s expensive. Things cost a lot. Real estate costs an awful lot. I saw a an article in a local West Side publication saying that the Upper West Side is a haven for independent minds. My immediate thought was, yeah, independent minds who can afford to pay $1,700 a square foot.” • And below—

“Privatization of Public Spaces: A Growing Concern” [Rachel H., LinkedIn]. “1. In 2021, an urban anthropology team at University College London stopped tracking consumer spending and audited city grids across North America. They hunted for «neutral zones»—places you can legally exist without a financial transaction. They found a ghost town. They mapped a structural siege on human presence.” And: “We step into a relentless gauntlet of micro-transactions. The UCL team calculated the baseline cost of navigating a modern urban center for four hours—without explicitly intending to shop—averages exactly forty dollars. It is the forced friction cost of transit, hydration, and spatial rental. If you cannot afford it, you are pushed back inside your own walls. The system hasn’t just priced you out of luxury. It privatized your geographic freedom. You aren’t a resident anymore. You are an actively billed subscriber. Are you participating in society, or just renting the right to stand on the sidewalk?” • Yes, and rent is exactly what’s going on here. However, when I do to find the study, I end up with a self-referential rat’s nest of Instagram posts. Do we have any urban anthropologists in the readership who know where to find the the original UCL study?

News of the Wired

“Behind the Curtain: Scaling sin” [Axios]. “America is quickly becoming Sin Nation. Or, as President Trump put it while discussing prediction markets in the Oval Office last month: ‘The whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino.’ Once-forbidden vices — weed, gambling and porn — are no longer confined to back alleys or the desert. They’re ubiquitous, digital and spreading at a pace that has outstripped the country’s social and regulatory guardrails. Governments didn’t turn a blind eye to most of this behavior. They encouraged it. We’re scaling sin in real time. There’s potential for political agreement that some portion of America’s scaling of sin might have been too much, too fast.” • Sounds like a moral panic, to me. I’d classify carrying out genocide as next-level. Now that’s a crime with real victims!

“Prediction site Kalshi fines three US candidates who bet on own elections” [Guardian]. “Before he announced his Senate candidacy, a political hopeful in Virginia did something not so unusual in this day and age: he logged on to a prediction market exchange and wagered money that he would run. Then he ran. Then he bet on that too. The candidate and trader was Mark Moran, a former FBoy Island contestant who went viral recently for his campaign launch video. Investigators with Kalshi, the federally regulated prediction market exchange, found he placed two trades on their platform, the first in a market asking which individuals would seek public office in 2026, the second after he formally entered the race. The case is one of three enforcements involving political candidates who traded on their own electoral prospects that Kalshi disclosed on Wednesday. The announcements come after the prediction market platform instituted new guardrails against insider trading that included a ban on political candidates trading on their own campaigns.” • There’s that word, “guardrails.” The road is going in the right direction; it just needs some guardrails.

Plant of the Day

Via mrsyk:

asparagus.jpeg

mrsyk writes: “With a complimentary cat photobomb. Spring is in the air! All the best from the southern Greens!” • Photobombed photos are the best photos….

Dear readers, I could use a few more Plantidotes… Thanks to the you who sent more Plantidotes in! (It’s helpful to have one Plantidote for each email. I track the Plantidotes I have run by whether I have opened the mail or not, and when there are several Plantidotes in one mail and I use one, I have to remember to mark the mail unread so that I remember to return to the mail for the rest. And if I’m in a rush, that’s a source of error. Thank you!)

Send your plantidotes as attachments to lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [AT] protonmail [DOT] com. And if you put “Plant” or “Plantidote” in the subject line, I’ll be less likely to lose it. Gardening season approaches, at least in the Northeast. Prep work is fine!

Comments

By CanCyn – Wed, 13 May 2026 - 15:10 | Permalink

Another millionaire who thinks the Democrats are the good guys. The day I saw the picture of Springsteen and his wife hanging out with the Obamas on some rich guy’s yacht is the day I gave up on him.